Rolling returns: the fairest way to judge a mutual fund
Aeterna Wealth · figures from our fund data, updated 12 Nov 2026
A single 3-year return depends on the day you start and stop counting. Rolling returns look at every 3-year period: starting each day over the last few years, how often was the fund ahead of its index, and by how much in the bad periods? For example, Motilal Oswal Flexi Cap Fund was ahead of its index in 73% of rolling 3-year periods.
Why one period misleads
A fund measured from a market low looks brilliant; from a market high, poor. Two funds can swap places just by moving the end date a few months. Rolling returns remove that luck by using every start date.
What we show for every fund
- How often the fund was ahead of its index over rolling 3-year periods (the 'hit rate').
- The median margin over the index across those periods.
- The worst 10% of periods: how far behind it fell when it was behind.
- The same for rolling 1-year periods, for consistency over shorter spans.
How to read them
- A high hit rate with a positive median margin: the fund has added value fairly consistently.
- A high median but a low hit rate: a few great periods did the work; expect long dry spells.
- Compare funds only within the same category and against the same index.
Common questions
What is a good rolling return?
One that beat the fund's own index in most periods. Many funds don't: in several categories the median fund was behind its index in most rolling 3-year periods.
Are rolling returns a forecast?
No. They describe how consistent the record has been, which is more informative than one period, but not a prediction.
Where can I see them?
On every fund page on our site, under consistency.
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General information, not investment or tax advice for your situation. Mutual fund investments are subject to market risks; read all scheme-related documents carefully. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.
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